https://changkun.de/blog/tags/%E5%86%B3%E7%AD%96%E7%90%86%E8%AE%BA/Recent content in 决策理论 on Changkun's BlogHugo -- gohugo.ioen-USSat, 04 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0100https://changkun.de/blog/posts/dark-forest-theory/Sat, 04 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0100https://changkun.de/blog/posts/dark-forest-theory/0. Introduction The “Dark Forest Theory” proposed by Liu Cixin in the Three-Body Problem series is a speculative theory about interaction strategies among cosmic civilizations. This article attempts to provide a rigorous formal derivation of the theory using tools from game theory and decision theory, starting from the axioms given in the novel. The core argument proceeds in three steps: first, we prove that the two original axioms from the novel are insufficient on their own to derive the Dark Forest; then we supplement the necessary structural conditions and construct an incomplete information game model; finally, we derive sufficient conditions for the Dark Forest as a risk-dominant equilibrium and discuss the limitations of this conclusion.